In the latest draft treaty text from Thursday evening in Paris two contentious issues seem to be resolved: how often the agreement will be reviewed after it is adopted (“stocktaking”) and whether the reviews should involve ever-more-stringent commitments by the parties (“ratcheting”).
The background here is that the greenhouse gas reduction commitments made so far by 185 countries are voluntary, and they have varying levels of ambition. Most countries committed to fulfill their promised reductions by 2030, but some countries, including the United States, used a 2025 target year (the U.S. committed to a 26-28% reduction below 2005 levels). There is no enforcement mechanism for these commitments – no sheriff to monitor compliance and no court to punish the laggards.
The second-best option, then, is periodic reviews – stocktaking -- to see how each nation is progressing toward its voluntary pledge. Although this idea seems non-controversial, many developing countries in Paris opposed 5-year reviews between now and 2030 because they feared the reviews would be used to shame them or force them to increase their reduction commitments. India, for example, pushed for a 10-year review process to give countries the time to do what they said they would do. Developed countries, led by the United States, pushed for reviews early and often: at least every five years beginning in 2018 or 2020.
The current text (Article 10) now confirms that the first global “stocktake” will be in 2023 and will be every five years thereafter. The draft agreement never mentions the word “ratcheting,” but simply states (Article 3) that each party “shall,” communicate a greenhouse gas reduction pledge every five years. Further, the pledge “should” represent “a progression beyond the Party’s previous efforts and reflect its highest possible ambition.” An earlier draft of the treaty used the word “shall” rather than “should” in this sentence; so disappointingly, it is not obligatory that countries ratchet up their own pledges over time.
With this new language, we can see an outline of the post-Paris process. It is clear to everyone that the Paris agreement will not achieve the goal of limiting warming to “well below” 2 degrees (the new target objective in the latest draft). At best, it will buy the world ten more years to stay on a path that makes less than two degrees of warming theoretically achievable. So post-Paris, regular reviews and increases in ambition are essential. Conferences of the Parties will continue to meet every year, of course, and NGOs will keep constant track of the gap between national emissions and the “well below” 2 degree goal.
The five-year reviews, therefore, should be something different, more than just finger-wagging at laggard nations. They should assess mitigation, adaptation, and financing, and integrate the latest science. They should be an international showcase for countries to announce new, aggressive climate pledges to take us into the 2040s. With the effects of climate change getting increasingly dangerous, the time for a new round of more stringent commitments is not far away.
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| December 10, 2015
In the latest draft treaty text from Thursday evening in Paris two contentious issues seem to be resolved: how often the agreement will be reviewed after it is adopted (“stocktaking”) and whether the reviews should involve ever-more-stringent commitments by the parties (“ratcheting”). The background here is that the greenhouse gas reduction commitments made so far by 185 […]
James Goodwin | December 9, 2015
This morning, CPR President and Loyola University, New Orleans, Law Professor Robert R.M. Verchick testifies at a hearing convened by the Senate Budget Committee to examine a dangerous regulatory policy proposal known as “regulatory budgeting.” As he explains in his testimony, regulatory budgeting represents a stark departure from the traditional focus of regulatory policy discussions, […]
| December 9, 2015
Here at the UN climate summit is Paris, negotiators are hashing out the new meaning of an old term: common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR). CBDR has been a bedrock principle of climate negotiations since 1992. It was the basis for dividing the world into two camps: 37 developed nations that had binding greenhouse gas emissions […]
Mollie Rosenzweig | December 7, 2015
If you’ve come across one of the ads, newspaper stories, or opinion pieces from Chuck Norris in the past week warning you about frankenfish, you can thank the FDA. In mid-November, the FDA made history by approving the first genetically engineered (GE) animal for human consumption, Atlantic salmon from the company AquaBounty. Not only has the approval process […]
| December 4, 2015
Politicians are famous for reneging on, or conveniently ignoring, campaign pledges and other promises. In some cases, politicians put themselves in untenable positions, such as when they offer conflicting promises to different interest groups. This is when it becomes easy to see what an elected official’s true priorities are. Governor Hogan proclaimed that he would […]
Rena Steinzor | December 3, 2015
Justice was done today by a hard-working jury in West Virginia that convicted Don Blankenship of conspiracy to obstruct federal mine safety rules. This conspiracy was the primary cause of an enormous explosion that killed 29 men in the worst mine disaster in 40 years. Although the jury was not presented with the question of […]
James Goodwin | December 2, 2015
In a post last week, I noted that, over the last year, the Obama Administration has finalized all or part of several of the 13 regulatory actions highlighted in a 2014 Center for Progressive Reform report challenging the President to focus renewed energy during the remainder of his term on securing critical new protections for people and the […]
Robert Verchick | December 1, 2015
In August I commemorated the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina by pedaling along the self-guided “Levee Disaster Bike Tour.” I began beneath the muscular oaks along New Orleans’ Bayou St. John and threaded my way around potholes and waterfowl to pay my respects at three prominent levee-breach sites. The ride gave me a chance to reflect […]
James Goodwin | November 24, 2015
From the moment they secured majorities in both chambers, congressional Republicans have made no secret of their intention to launch an all-out, guerilla warfare-style campaign against the federal government — and even the very notion of governance itself. Accordingly, they have pursued a strategy of salt-the-earth sabotage designed to spread like a communicable disease the […]