Cross-posted from LegalPlanet.
Trump is proposing to gut CO2 standards for cars, freezing 2020 CAFE fuel-efficiency standards in place for years to come. Without the freeze, the standards would automatically ramp up. He also wants to eliminate California's ability to set its own standards, which many other states have opted to adopt. Here are seven key questions about Trump's proposed rollback and some answers.
A: Not so much. It's not that they love being regulated. But the big downside for the car companies is regulatory uncertainty. Putting out a new car model costs $1-6 billion and takes 2½ to 3 years. Trump's rollback is going to be tied up in court for at least a year, maybe two, even assuming it's ultimately upheld. In the meantime, manufacturers won't be able to plan for post-2020 models. The manufacturers don't need this headache.
A: Not likely. Here, the best evidence is the analysis of the costs and benefits of eliminating the Obama rule by researchers at Resources for the Future, which specializes in environmental economics. They concluded that there was unlikely to be a net benefit to society. The Institute for Policy Integrity, an economics-oriented center at NYU, agrees. According to The New York Times, even Andrew Wheeler, the former coal lobbyist who now heads EPA, considers the evidence for a rollback very weak. He is said to have resisted the rollback on the grounds that the Trump administration would probably lose in court and weaken its credibility on other issues.
A: No, the law seems to be against him on this one. California currently has the power to establish its own greenhouse gas standards for vehicles. Ann Carlson has explained in an earlier post why Trump's proposed rollback is legally dubious at best. There's also a very thorough legal analysis from the Institute for Policy Integrity coming to the same conclusion. If California's authority is upheld, car companies will be faced with the unpalatable need to satisfy two different regulatory standards, which they hate.
A. If anything, this is legally weaker than the rest of his proposal. California first began this effort in order to reduce air pollution long before the state even began to address vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases. So California's effort to promote electric cars historically had nothing to do with fuel efficiency or even reductions in greenhouse gases. Even today, it's important in part because it will reduce urban air pollution.
A; Maybe, but probably not. The car industry is hoping that there will be serious negotiations between California and the Trump administration now that the proposals are official. I suppose that's possible, but there are two problems. One problem is California politics. Democrats control California, and they're not going to be willing to give up much ground to get a deal. The bigger problem is Trump. For someone who was supposed to be a deal maker, Trump seems more interested in pleasing his base than negotiating compromises.
A: Yes, though mostly things we should do anyway. States like California that care about climate change have several options. They can use subsidies or other incentives to encourage the use of electric vehicles or other low-emission technologies. (In California, the funding could come from cap-and-trade revenue.) They can work harder to reduce the number of miles people drive. And they can tighten standards for conventional air pollutants for cars to make up for the increased air pollution that comes from burning more gas. They can start enforcing current rules against idling cars and trucks.
A: Trump seems to be overplaying his hand. The odds of defeating his proposals in court seem good, especially since Clean Air Act regulations go to the DC Circuit for review, which is considerably less conservative than some of the other circuits. Team Trump seems to be counting on having Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court by the time the litigation gets there. But the Court may not agree to hear the case, or one or two conservatives may not buy Trump's tenuous legal arguments. When you consider that even EPA's Wheeler thinks this is a weak case for the government, the litigation risks have to be large.
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Daniel Farber | August 6, 2018
Cross-posted from LegalPlanet. Trump is proposing to gut CO2 standards for cars, freezing 2020 CAFE fuel-efficiency standards in place for years to come. Without the freeze, the standards would automatically ramp up. He also wants to eliminate California's ability to set its own standards, which many other states have opted to adopt. Here are seven key […]
Joel A. Mintz | August 2, 2018
This op-ed originally ran in the Miami Herald. The forced resignation of Scott Pruitt as administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) brought celebration and relief in many quarters. Pruitt was a walking scandal machine who generated an endless stream of headlines about spending abuses, cozy relationships with industry lobbyists, first-class travel at government […]
Wendy Wagner | August 1, 2018
Originally published on The Regulatory Review. Reprinted with permission. In a previous essay, we critiqued the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recently proposed transparency rule, arguing that the proposal conflicts with best scientific practices and would further erode the EPA’s ability to do its job. According to supporters, the central goal of the proposed rule is […]
Matt Shudtz | August 1, 2018
Andrew Wheeler will be on the hot seat today when he heads to Capitol Hill for his first appearance before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee as Acting Administrator of the EPA. Senators initially scheduled the hearing when Scott Pruitt was Administrator and his ethical problems had reached such epic proportions that his party's […]
Lisa Heinzerling | July 31, 2018
Originally published on The Regulatory Review. Reprinted with permission. In the fitting last act of his corrupt reign as the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Scott Pruitt handed a gift to companies who profit from producing cheaper trucks by dispensing with modern pollution control equipment. He arranged for political appointees at EPA to […]
Joel A. Mintz | July 31, 2018
This op-ed originally ran in the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Recent events have underscored the vital importance of effective environmental regulation for Floridians. Blue green algae — apparently caused by releases of contaminated water from Lake Okeechobee — has blanketed significant portions of our state’s east and west coasts, causing major economic losses and posing a […]
Thomas McGarity | July 30, 2018
This commentary was originally published by The American Prospect. Most of us take for granted the federal regulations that make our air cleaner, our drinking water purer, our food, highways, and workplaces safer, and our economic transactions less vulnerable to fraud and abuse. And few of us realize the extent to which those protections are […]
Evan Isaacson | July 27, 2018
Today, the Mid-Atlantic Regional Office of the Environmental Protection Agency officially released its assessment of Chesapeake Bay restoration progress. This marked the formal conclusion of the multi-year process known as the "midpoint assessment" for the Chesapeake's cleanup plan.
Joseph Tomain | July 26, 2018
This post is part of a series on Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. When Judge Brett Kavanaugh was nominated for the open U.S. Supreme Court seat, I was interested in his energy law opinions and began reading them together with some of his environmental law decisions. They seem to be written by two […]